There are two preselected exponential curves (Power & Exponential), but another curve, such as logarithmic, could be the appropriate choice for you.

To find which one is the most accurate, check the R squared coefficient for which is the best fit for your data. The R squared coefficient should always be above 90% in order to have accurate results.

Do not use Linear exponential curves, as user acquisition and retention is never linear.

JP Johl

This tool allows marketers to predict Daily Active Users (DAU) based on user acquisition target and allows you to answer questions like required marketing spend and profitability for mobile Apps, podcasts, and websites.

This tool allows marketers to predict Daily Active Users (DAU) based on our user acquisition target and allows you to answer questions like required marketing spend and profitability for mobile Apps. Although I use this DAU predictor primarily for mobile apps, the same process applies to websites, podcasts, etc.

Insert Day 1,3,7,14, and 30 retention data and input them into cells B2 - B66 accordingly.

To select the regression line (y) that is the best fit for your data, right-click on the current regression line and select "Format trendline."

Once you have selected the best option for your data, copy and paste the trendline formula into cell A9.

Now separate the exponential and the X numbers from the formula and place them into cells C9 and D9 to populate the data into column J, but be wary that you have to change the formula in this column if you swap from one curve type to another (i.e., exponential to logarithmic).

Daily Active User Calculator at AdTribute

Power Function

Exponential Function

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